Scrap Metal Market Update: Mixed Signals as Copper Holds and Precious Metals Slide

Scrap Metal Market Update — October 20, 2026

The scrap metal market is sending mixed signals heading into late October 2026. Steel scrap prices are holding firm, copper is finding a floor despite real downside risks, and precious metals have taken a notable hit over the past 30 days. If you're running a scrap yard or managing metal inventory, here's what the current landscape looks like — and what you should be thinking about right now.

Market Snapshot: Where Prices Stand Today

Let's start with the numbers. Precious metals have been the biggest movers — and not in a good direction. Palladium has dropped 16.2% in 30 days to $1,084/oz, making it the weakest performer in the group. Silver is close behind, falling 13.6% to $57.16/oz and showing the highest volatility of any major precious metal. Platinum is down 9.7% at $1,629/oz, and gold has pulled back 5.4% to $4,117.40/oz. The one bright spot in precious metals is rhodium, which has remained broadly stable at $9,100/oz — a relative safe harbor in an otherwise turbulent group.

On the industrial metals side, the picture is similarly uneven. Copper sits at $6.58/lb, down 3.1% and hovering near the bottom of its recent trading range. Aluminum has slid 8.3% to $1.36/lb, nickel is off 4.9% at $6.93/lb, and zinc has dropped 5.8% to $1.71/lb. Lead, meanwhile, is essentially flat at $0.84/lb.

Steel scrap is the standout for stability. Both heavy melt scrap ($366/mt) and shredded scrap ($413/mt) are unchanged — a reassuring signal for sellers in that segment.

What's Driving the Market Right Now

Copper: Strong Long-Term Story, Real Short-Term Risk

Copper's fundamentals remain genuinely compelling over the long haul. Demand from AI data center buildouts, power grid upgrades, and defense spending continues to grow. Add in tightening mine supply and low copper inventory levels in China, and you have a market that should, in theory, be well-supported. Chinese scrap shortages are also pushing up demand for refined copper imports, which is a further positive signal for clean copper units.

But there's a major wildcard: U.S. tariff policy. Analysts at Macquarie have flagged that copper is unusually sensitive to how tariff negotiations unfold. If tariffs are rolled out in a way that allows time for more shipments into the U.S., prices could spike sharply. But if expected tariffs fail to materialize, copper could fall toward $10,000 per metric ton — a meaningful correction from current levels. That kind of two-sided risk deserves serious attention from anyone holding significant copper inventory.

Precious Metals Under Pressure

Gold and silver are feeling the squeeze from a combination of factors: lingering inflation concerns, higher oil prices, and ongoing uncertainty about Federal Reserve interest rate policy. When rates and yields stay elevated, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold goes up — and buying interest tends to cool off. A softer U.S. dollar could provide some support, but it hasn't been enough to offset the broader headwinds so far. Palladium and silver, in particular, warrant close attention given their sharp recent declines.

Base Metals: Broadly Soft

Aluminum, nickel, and zinc are all under pressure, reflecting a wider softness in the base metals complex. There are no clear near-term catalysts to reverse these trends, which makes timing an important consideration for sellers in these categories.

Key Takeaways

• Palladium and silver are the weakest performers, down 16.2% and 13.6% respectively over the past 30 days — sellers should factor in continued volatility.
• Rhodium is stable at $9,100/oz, making it a relative outlier among precious metals.
• Copper's long-term outlook is positive, but tariff uncertainty creates significant short-term price risk in both directions.
• Steel scrap remains unchanged, providing a stable backdrop for sellers in that segment.
• Aluminum, nickel, and zinc are all trending lower — there's limited upside momentum in the near term.
• Chinese copper scrap shortages are supportive of clean copper pricing and refined import demand.

What This Means for Scrap Sellers

If you're sitting on copper inventory, the smart move right now is disciplined, regular selling rather than holding out for a big price spike. The long-term story is real, but tariff-driven volatility could push prices sharply in either direction before that story plays out. Keep some flexibility in your approach, but don't let the bullish narrative talk you into holding more than makes business sense.

For precious metal sellers — particularly those with palladium or silver — the recent price drops are a reminder that these markets can move fast. If you have material ready to move, waiting for a recovery that may not come in the near term carries its own risk.

Steel scrap sellers are in a more comfortable position. With prices stable on both heavy melt and shredded grades, there's no urgency to rush sales, but there's also no clear signal of an imminent breakout to the upside.

Across the board, the current market rewards consistent selling, good timing, and competitive price discovery — not speculation.

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